Middle East Sees Strong Growth Coupled With Market Demand For Mobile Data & Wireless Broadband

The Middle East region is forecast to increase its subscription base by 34% over the period 2008-2012 from 144 million to 193 million. But growth rates will fluctuate widely between the advanced Gulf states, most of which are already mature mobile markets with more than one subscription for every person, and other less developed economies where growth will be stronger.

Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and the UAE will only grow by between 17% and 26% over the period while Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Oman, Palestine, Syria and Yemen will see their mobile populations soar by between 25% and 51%. Across the whole region, Informa Telecoms & Media forecasts that penetration will reach 77.05% by 2012.

A number of countries will have penetration rates well in excess of 100% by 2012. They include the UAE (257%), Bahrain (210%) and Qatar (176%). Multi-SIM ownership is already a strong feature of these and other markets in the region. Informa Telecoms & Media believes that the Middle East is the region with the highest rate of multiple-SIMcard ownership in the world, with about 38% of subscriptions at end-2008 expected to be secondary or tertiary subscriptions.

Mobile Subscription Growth Rate

Factors that tend to encourage multiple-SIM ownership include a preponderance of prepaid services, which do not require a credit check or a commitment to regular expenditure, and competitive markets in which operators frequently promote particular price offers and low-cost SIM cards. A predominance of prepaid services is particularly evident in MEA where prepaid services accounted for about 85% of subscriptions in the region at end-2007.

The more advanced markets in the region will forge ahead with advanced data-centric network expansion over the period 2008-2012 with the aim of encouraging mobile data usage. This will see annual mobile data revenues increasing by 118% over the forecast period from approximately $3.1 billion in 2007 to $6.7 billion in 2012. However, this will still only be 16% of the total annual revenues generated in 2012, up from 10% in 2007.

The delayed launch of 3G in some of the countries in the Middle East has allowed operators to consider launching advanced 3.5G technologies in tandem with 3G networks. This opportunity will see HSPA developing early on in the evolution of 3G networks in the region with 333,000 subscriptions by the end of 2007, rising to 25.3 million by end-2012 - a market share of 11%. However, the 2G subscription base - which will  although the WCDMA base will be closing in on it with 34% of the total by that time.

Mobile Penetration Rates